Summary
HIGHLIGHTS
The estimate of world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2024/25 is cut by 3m t m/m (month-on-month), to 2,301m. The main change is for maize, tied to worsening South American prospects, but with a downgrade also for sorghum. Forecast global consumption is lowered modestly, to a still record 2,334m t. Cumulative ending stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are placed at 576m t, a little higher than before, but down by 5% y/y (year-on-year), driven by a contraction in the major exporters. World grains trade is forecast 1m t lower m/m, mainly reflecting cuts to China's sorghum and wheat import figures.
There are few changes to the Council's wheat projections for 2025/26, which include outlooks for increased output, consumption and trade, but another drawdown in stocks. Maize acreage is tentatively seen higher in the coming season, including a potential expansion in the main exporters. Barley plantings are forecast to rebound only modestly from the prior year's historical lows.
Reflecting reduced expectations for Argentina and Paraguay, world soyabean output in 2024/25 is seen 2m t down from before, at 418m (+5%). With total use uprated slightly, inventories are trimmed by 2m t m/m, but still a fresh peak. The outlook for trade is maintained at 180m t (+1%). In preliminary projections for 2025/26, global harvested area is pegged at a new high (+1%).
The 2024/25 global rice supply and demand balance sheet is little-changed from the January GMR, with record production, use and trade anticipated. Looking ahead to 2025/26, world acreage is tentatively seen edging higher, mainly on expanded sowings in Asia, including India. While state support will be important, the y/y drop in international values could cap the overall expansion.
The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) held steady compared to five weeks earlier. While average grains export quotations increased, rice and soyabeans prices were mostly in retreat.
Global 2024/25 total grains output is forecast 8m t below the previous year's peak, mainly due to a smaller maize crop. Consumption is forecast at a new high, led by gains in industrial use. At 576m t (-5%), closing stocks could be the tightest in a decade, with exporter inventories of 129m (-9%) the least in 11 years. Including steep declines in wheat and maize flows, world trade is projected to drop by 40m t, to 419m.
Tied to heavy crops in the US and Brazil, 2024/25 global soyabean output is predicted to expand by 5% y/y to a peak of 418m t. With gains spanning feed, food and industrial segments, record processing is anticipated, while inventories are pegged at a new high (+11%). Trade is projected to edge up (+1%), including sizeable shipments to key destinations. On a local MY (Feb/Jan) basis, Brazilian exports are seen rebounding, by about 11m t y/y.
Chiefly linked to bigger crops in key exporters, global rice output in 2024/25 is forecast 2% higher y/y at a new peak. Alongside record total use, inventories are predicted to accumulate, with stocks in the five majors exceeding 50m t for the first time. Trade in 2025 (Jan/Dec) is seen little-changed y/y, at about 57m t; while Indonesian purchases are set to plunge, those by China are likely to increase.
Against the backdrop of an improved global lentils harvest, total use could expand by 12% y/y in 2024/25, with a sizeable increase in stocks also foreseen. However, due to smaller shipments to South Asia, trade is predicted to contract by 3% y/y in 2025 (Jan/Dec). In the following year, a rebound in Australian production could boost world output.
MARKET SUMMARY
Amid offsetting changes across the constituent commodities, the IGC GOI held steady compared to the January GMR.
Amid ongoing concerns about 2025/26 winter crops in some northern hemisphere producers, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index gained by 4% m/m.
The IGC GOI maize sub-Index advanced by 4%, underpinned partly by South American weather worries. US prices were also buoyed by sustained strong export demand.
Weighed by ample world availabilities and muted buying interest, the IGC GOI rice-sub Index slumped by 8%, dropping to a more than two-year low.
The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index eased by 1% m/m. There were mixed movements across major origin markets, with modest declines in the US and Argentina, but gains in Brazil.