Summary

HIGHLIGHTS

With changes mainly in the southern hemisphere, the forecast for total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2024/25 is 4m t higher m/m (month-on-month) at 2,306m, down slightly y/y (year-on-year). While forecast consumption is boosted as well, larger supplies contribute to a 1m t increase in the carryover figure, now placed at 577m (aggregate of respective local marketing years). At 416m t, the trade estimate is down by 3m from February, including cuts for wheat and sorghum.

The first full set of projections for 2025/26 total grains point to an overall increase in output, led by maize, but with advances too, for wheat and barley. With production gains only partly countered by a low level of opening stocks, a 1% increase in total supply is anticipated. Despite a rise in consumption, carryover inventories are projected to edge higher, buoyed by an accumulation in the major exporters. Trade is expected to rebound, but remaining well below earlier peaks.

There are few changes to the Council's expectations for global soyabean supply and demand in 2024/25, with trade potentially edging up to a new peak. In the Council's first formal outlook for 2025/26, a record outturn is anticipated, while further gains in total use and inventories are likely. With Brazilian suppliers predicted to account for two-thirds of world shipment flows, trade is projected to rise by 2% to a fresh high.

Largely reflecting prospects for firmer demand for 100% broken following the end of Indian export restrictions, the outlook for rice trade in 2025 is lifted by around 1m t, to a peak of 58m. Based on acreage gains and trend yields, global output is predicted to expand to a high in 2025/26. On the demand side, both consumption and trade are projected to reach respective records while a modest uplift in inventories is anticipated, chiefly on accumulation in China.

Pulled lower mainly by declines in maize, wheat and rice fob prices, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) eased by 2% m/m.

Total grains production in 2024/25 is expected to fall fractionally short of the record in the previous season, with maize accounting for most of the drop. Owing to tighter carry-in stocks and increased uptake, carryover inventories are projected to contract by 5% y/y. A 9% drop in grains trade is anticipated, including relatively sharp falls for wheat and maize.

The preliminary outlook for total grains in 2025/26 is for an overall better supplied global market. Despite relatively low opening stocks, a rebound in production (+3%) could boost total supply to a fresh peak. Consumption is seen 1% higher, with most of the growth for feed and industrial. After three years of contraction, stocks could edge higher, but with inventories still unusually tight. Trade should increase, with the 2% y/y upturn mainly linked to larger wheat flows.

Tied to heavy US and Brazilian harvests, 2024/25 world soyabean output is pegged at a record, 22m t higher y/y. Against the backdrop of sizeable availabilities, both consumption and inventories are seen at new peaks, while world import demand is predicted to advance on bigger or above-average deliveries to Europe, Africa and Asia. Tied to marginal area gains and trend yields, production could establish a high in 2025/26, with total utilisation expanding on firmer demand from feed, food and industrial sectors across multiple regions. Record trade is anticipated, rising by 2% y/y.

Following on from a year of record production and consumption, the Council's tentative expectations for 2025/26 point to further gains in global rice output, boosted by expanded plantings and trend yields. Growing populations in key consuming regions are set to underpin expanded total use, while firmer demand from buyers in Asia and Africa could see trade increase to a record of 59m t in 2026. India is set to remain the dominant exporter.

After declining in the prior year, global dry peas production could increase in 2025/26 on a rebound in Russian output, with uptake also set to recover. Following an anticipated marked contraction in 2025 on softer demand from South Asia, trade is predicted to hold steady in the next calendar year.

MARKET SUMMARY

While a portion of earlier, steeper declines was partly reversed in recent weeks, the IGC GOI eased by 2% compared to the February GMR.

Mainly reflecting declines in North American and Australian quotations, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index dipped by a net 1%.

The IGC GOI maize sub-Index dropped by 4% over the past month, as worries about the impact of worsening trade relationships weighed on CME futures.

Weighed by ample spot availabilities and generally soft buying interest, the IGC GOI rice-sub-Index declined by 3% m/m.

The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index was 1% higher overall. Movements were mixed across key origins, with a downturn in US export values contrasting with firmer South American markets.