Summary

HIGHLIGHTS

The latest assessment of global total grains (wheat and coarse grains) supply and demand for 2024/25 is for some further tightening in the outlook, as the production forecast is reduced and consumption is placed higher than before. Grains output is now seen at 2,311m t, down by 4m from last month, mainly because of downgraded estimates for barley and wheat. The projection of world consumption is up by 4m t m/m (month-on-month), with increases for feed, food and industrial uses. End-season stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are forecast 8m t lower than previously, at 576m, the smallest in ten years, including drawdowns for wheat, maize, barley and rye. With minor offsetting adjustments across various grains, the global trade forecast is maintained at 419m t.

Largely reflecting a reduced US crop estimate, the outlook for soyabean production in 2024/25 is trimmed by 2m t m/m, to 419m, up by 6% y/y (year-on-year) and a new high. With global uptake pegged a touch higher than before, combined end-season reserves are projected 4m t lower m/m, near-entirely tied to a downgrade for key exporters. Traded volumes are seen marginally up from previously, at 180m t (+1%).

Chiefly linked to an uprated outlook for production in India, global rice output in 2024/25 is seen 4m t higher m/m, at 535m (+2%), with the overall increase in availabilities reflected in increased expectations for consumption and aggregate end-season inventories – the latter lifted by 1m m/m. World import demand in 2025 (Jan/Dec) is predicted little-changed from previously, at 56m t (+3%).

With mixed movements across the various components, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) was broadly steady compared to mid-October.

Total grains output is forecast to edge to a new peak in 2024/25, pulled higher mainly by larger sorghum, oats and barley outturns. After some big swings in recent seasons, especially for maize, only modest y/y changes in production are expected across the main grains. Consumption is also expected to set new records, with food, feed and industrial uptake each at fresh highs. The combination of a reduced supply and higher utilisation will result in tighter carryover stocks, forecast 3% below the previous year, at 576m t, with a comparatively sharper drop in cumulative exporter inventories, to 135m (-5%). Mainly owing to smaller import requirements in Asia and Europe, world trade is expected to fall by 8%, to 419m t.

Boosted by expectations for sizeable harvests in major growers and exporters, world soyabean output is seen 6% higher y/y, at a record of 419m t. With gains anticipated to be broad-based, spanning multiple regions and market segments, total utilisation is seen expanding to a new peak, while heavy stock accumulation in the three majors is anticipated. Tied to above-average shipments to Asia, Europe and Africa, trade is projected to edge up to 180m t (+1%).

Led by a solid expansion in India, spanning kharif, rabi and summer crops, 2024/25 world rice production is predicted to expand by 2% y/y, to a record of 535m t. Given plentiful availabilities, gains in food demand are set to push up total use to a new high, while inventory build is expected. Global import demand is projected to expand by 3% y/y on potentially firmer African demand, more than offsetting reduced shipments to some Asian markets. With exports moving north of 20m t, India is set to increase its share of overall trade flows.

World broad beans output is seen edging down in 2024/25, with consumption and stocks also tentatively expected to decline. Following the prior year’s fall, trade in 2025 (Jan/Dec) is predicted broadly steady, at 1.1m t, with a modest improvement in North African demand. Total trade in all pulses in 2024 is forecast to contract by 5% y/y, to 21.4m t; while dry peas volumes are set to remain firm, at around 7.0m t, flows of chickpeas and lentils are anticipated to fall.

MARKET SUMMARY

The IGC GOI was stable compared to the October GMR. Activity was two-sided, with developments in outside markets often influencing price direction.

Amid building southern hemisphere seasonal pressure and improved weather outlooks in a number of key suppliers, including the US, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index eased by 4% m/m.

The IGC GOI maize sub-Index gained by a net 3%. US price support mainly stemmed from solid global demand, while Brazilian quotations rose on strength in the domestic market.

Mainly reflecting a global exportable supply boost following the removal of white rice restrictions in India, the IGC GOI rice-sub Index dropped by 5% over the past five weeks.

The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index advanced by 1%, with modest gains at all leading origins, most notably in South America.