Summary

HIGHLIGHTS

Including modest adjustments for wheat and millet, world 2024/25 total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production is forecast 3m t lower m/m (month-on-month) at 2,303m. The outlook for consumption is cut by 8m t, to 2,328m, including a downgraded estimate for wheat food use (mainly India) and various reductions for feed (mostly maize). The projection for closing stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is boosted by 4m t m/m, to 580m, still the lowest in ten years. Tied mainly to larger than expected recent maize flows, including to sub-Saharan Africa, trade (Jul/Jun) is forecast 2m t higher than before, at 418m.

The grains supply outlook for 2025/26 is slightly more comfortable compared to last month, with upgraded projections for opening stocks and output. Forecast uptake is also revised higher, up by 7m t m/m, to a record 2,373m, predominantly on a revised industrial (ethanol) consumption profile for India. Carryover stocks are placed 2m t higher m/m, seen matching the previous year's 580m.

There are limited changes to the 2024/25 global soyabean supply and demand balance sheet, with trade seen at a record of about 181m t, up by 1% y/y (year-on-year). There are modest adjustments to the outlook for 2025/26, with consumption pegged marginally higher than in March, at a peak (+4% y/y). Trimmed slightly from before, mainly on a reduced figure for China, world import demand is predicted at 181m t, matching the Council's expectations for the prior year.

Chiefly tied to an uprated estimate for India, global rice production in 2024/25 is pegged 3m t higher m/m, also channelled to modest upward revisions to consumption and stocks. Similarly, projections for supply and demand in 2025/26 are raised from before. Expectations for trade in 2025 and 2026 are pegged fractionally higher than in March, with Indian dispatches set to exceed 23m t in both years.

With mixed movements across the various constituent components, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) ticked slightly higher across the past month.

World 2024/25 grains output is forecast 7m t lower y/y, at 2,303m. Uptake is placed slightly higher y/y, rising on gains in processing demand. Carryover stocks will tighten for a third year in a row, including falls in wheat, maize, barley and rye. Almost entirely because of a steep drop in Chinese imports (-36m t), trade is set to shrink to 418m (-40m), the lowest since 2019/20.

Mainly on expectations for a bumper maize crop, grains production is projected at a new peak in 2025/26, seen 70m t higher y/y, at 2,373m. With supply gains broadly matched by increases in consumption, end-season inventories are seen unchanged y/y. Coarse grains stocks are forecast to build slightly, while wheat carryovers could recede for a third consecutive year. At 424m t, trade is expected to rise, but with volumes seen smaller than average amid muted Chinese buying interest.

Against the backdrop of record supplies, world soyabean use and inventories are seen at respective peaks in 2024/25, with trade also set to edge up to 181m t. Concerning prospects for 2025/26, global output is predicted at a record (+3%), with bigger crops in South America central to the increase. Consumption is projected to advance further on gains in feed, food and industrial demand, with stocks remaining at elevated levels. World import demand is likely to hold steady as reduced shipments to China are offset by bigger deliveries to smaller markets.

Building on the prior year’s peak, world rice production is predicted to establish a high in 2025/26, including larger crops in the major exporters and China. With population gains set to underpin record use, aggregate inventories are anticipated to edge up. Global import demand is tentatively projected to advance to a record of almost 60m t in 2026 (+2%), shaped by the requirements of African and Asian buyers, with Indian shipments accounting for about 40% of all flows.

In the Council’s first formal outlook, global broad beans output is predicted to hold steady for the second successive year in 2025/26 as gains in Australia offset a reduction in the EU. With consumption seen unchanged, inventories are pegged at 0.8m t (+2%). Shaped by demand from buyers in Europe and Near East Asia, traded volumes in 2026 (Jan/Dec) are projected at 1.3m t (+1%).

MARKET SUMMARY

The IGC GOI gained by 1% over the past month, as advances in average rowcrop export prices more than compensated for a pullback in rice, wheat and barley.

The IGC GOI wheat sub-Index edged lower m/m, but with mixed movements across the main exporting countries.

Led by a recovery in the US, the IGC GOI maize sub-Index turned 3% higher, as markets consolidated after the prior month's downturn.

With bearish market sentiment prevalent in Thailand and India, the IGC GOI rice-sub-Index eased by a net 3%.

The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index firmed by 1% overall, with support to US values stemming from a weaker dollar, tightening old crop supplies and steep gains in soya oil. Spot Brazilian values were largely unmoved m/m.