24 January 2025

Meeting of the International Grains Council

Members of the International Grains Council (IGC) convened for the 61^st Council Session on 23 January 2025 in London. The meeting was chaired by Mr. Hamed Oussama Salhi, First Secretary (Agriculture), Embassy of Algeria in London. Separately, the IGC Grains Forum 2025 entitled “Opportunities and challenges of Artificial Intelligence in the grains trade”. Co-organised with the government of Algeria, the Forum was opened by H.E. Mr. Nourredine Yazid, Ambassador of Algeria to the United Kingdom.

The Secretariat presented supply and demand forecasts and market developments for grains, rice, oilseeds and pulses in 2024/25, as well as tentative projections for selected commodities in 2025/26.

Total grains production was expected to contract slightly in 2024/25, with relatively minor y/y changes across key commodities. Increases for food, feed and industrial uses were envisaged to lift total consumption to 2,235m t, a new high, but with growth slower than in the prior year and the recent average. Global stocks were projected to drop by 5% y/y, to a 10-year low of 573m t. At 420m t, grains trade was predicted to fall by 8% y/y, with imports by China potentially down by 40%.

With near offsetting changes across key growers, world wheat harvested area in 2025/26 was seen contracting slightly y/y. However, assuming a modest improvement of yields, production was seen rising to 805m t, up 1% y/y. Separately, global rapeseed/canola acreage was projected to edge up, chiefly on gains in the EU and Oceania.

Following the threshing of big soyabean crops in the northern hemisphere, aggregate South American output was seen at a peak, boosting global production to a record (+6% y/y) in 2024/25. Consumption was set to advance on gains in food, feed and industrial market segments, while stocks were predicted to reach a new high. Trade was projected at 180m t, up 1% y/y, tied to broad-based, above-average purchases by key importers.

Tied to gains in the five majors, world rice output was seen rising by 2% y/y, to a new peak. With population growth the key driver, total use was forecast to reach a fresh high, while modest inventory accumulation was anticipated, including a solid expansion of India's reserves. Trade was predicted to increase by 1% y/y in 2025, as larger shipments to Africa more than offset smaller deliveries to Asia.

Global trade in all pulses was predicted to contract by 2% y/y in 2025, chiefly on a marked decline in dry peas import demand amid weaker buying interest from India. In contrast, global shipments of lentils and chickpeas were set to increase modestly.

Council members, together with representatives from FAO, MED-Amin and Côte d’Ivoire discussed food security and trade monitoring. The Secretariat introduced its new Food security and trade monitoring dashboard with the aim of supporting national authorities’ trade strategies to improve the food security.

The Council approved the translation of the Grains Market Report into Arabic, to enable Arabic-speaking stakeholders operating in national or regional markets to gain better access to grains, oilseeds, rice and pulses market information.

Secretariat updated members on developments about its ongoing programme of work, including:

• Mapping of ports connectivity and port congestion: The project is centred on the mapping of a real-time shipping database (900 ports) with new indicators, providing information on loading times, waiting times at port, loading capacity and the relevance of a particular port (in terms of volumes) to global trade. This project will provide a complete understanding of the connection between port specifics and logistics, together with the impact of logistical disruption on trade flows;

• Rice market transparency: The rice market has, at times, experienced heightened volatility, in part reflecting a market that is often opaque. The Secretariat has set up a Working Group to establish an accepted definition for Japonica rice, a process aimed at developing a HS code for the commodity. Furthermore, the Secretariat will organise meetings to address productivity gains in Africa as well as price discovery tools for stakeholders.

Council members also discussed agenda topics for the next IGC Grains Conference to be held on 10-11 June 2025 at the Institute of Directors, London, entitled “New Horizons: Charting the future direction of global grains trade”. More information is available on the Conference website: https://www.igc.int/en/conference/programme.aspx

The Council welcomed the participation of observers from Brazil, Taipei (Chinese) Separate Customs Territory, as well as representatives from FAO, AMIS, WFP, WTO, Eurasian Economic Commission, and IGTC.

Additionally, in conjunction with the Session, members discussed the development of Artificial Intelligence in the grains value chain at the IGC Grains Forum 2025 on the 22 January 2025. Artificial Intelligence has the potential to enhance efficiencies of all stakeholders across the grains value chain by optimising supplies, while also addressing storage and transportation challenges. The technology will also aid decision making processes across the sector. The Council agreed to develop a platform to share information surrounding the potential of Artificial Intelligence and regulatory framework developments with the private sector.