Summary
HIGHLIGHTS
Following a series of upward adjustments in recent reports, the forecast of 2025/26 world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production is 1m t lower m/m (month-on-month), at 2,460m. The reduction primarily reflects a revised barley estimate, with minor, near-offsetting changes for other crops. Factoring in smaller opening stocks, the total supply outlook is slightly tighter than before, with forecast end-season carryovers (aggregate of respective local marketing years) pegged 3m t lower m/m, at 631m. Including m/m increases for maize, wheat, barley and sorghum, the global trade projection is lifted by 3m t, to 449m.
Although forecasts remain tentative at this time, the initial global wheat supply and demand outlook appears slightly tighter in 2026/27, with expectations for a reduced harvest and further consumption gains. Given initial planted area assumptions and, assuming trend yields, next season's maize crop may also dip year on year (y/y). While barley acreage could be smaller than average amid relatively weak profit margins, the total is seen broadly similar to last season.
The Council’s forecast for world soyabean production in 2025/26 is pegged 1m t up from previously and just a shade below the prior year’s peak. Owing to a marginal downgrade to consumption expectations, carryover stocks are raised by 2m t m/m, still representing a modest tightening y/y. The outlook for trade is maintained at 187m t (+1%). In preliminary projections for 2026/27, the world area for threshing could rebound by 2% y/y on gains in leading exporters.
Global rice production in 2025/26 is forecast broadly steady m/m, at a record of 543m t. With consumption pegged modestly lower, together with a higher figure for carry-ins, end-season inventories are raised by 2m t. The outlook for trade in 2026 (Jan/Dec) is maintained at a peak of 60m t (+2%). Looking ahead to 2026/27, world harvested area is projected to edge up, but with much depending on state support given soft international values.
With late-2025 declines now fully reversed, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) strengthened by a net 4%, unchanged compared to a year ago. Gains in soyabean prices were most notable, but with average barley, wheat and maize values also firmer.
Including record harvests of wheat and maize, world total grains production is forecast 6% higher in 2025/26, to 2,460m t, the biggest in history. Despite the tightest opening stocks in ten years, total supply is seen rising by 4%, large enough to sustain a sizeable build up in end-season carryover inventories, pegged 45m t higher y/y. Led by an increase in shipments to Asia, trade (Jul/Jun) is expected to expand by 6%.
Global soyabean output is seen fractionally lower y/y as a potentially heavy outturn in Brazil contrasts with reduced crops in the US and Argentina. Against the backdrop of record supplies, world utilisation is forecast at a new peak (+3%) as firmer demand for derivative products across key end use segments underpins increased processing. While stocks are set to tighten, they would be well above average, with a small increase foreseen for the major exporters. Trade is predicted at a peak of 187m t (+1%).
Largely tied to gains in major exporters, global rice production in 2025/26 is forecast at a peak of 543m t. World consumption is seen at a record as rising populations in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia drive food demand, while inventories are forecast to climb by 3% y/y. Trade is predicted to increase in 2026, boosted by strong demand from buyers in sub-Saharan Africa.
Owing to larger crops in key exporters, world dry peas output is seen expanding by one-fifth y/y in 2025/26. Given the backdrop of ample availabilities, total use is forecast to increase, while heavy inventory accumulation is likely, chiefly in exporting countries. Trade is anticipated to rise solidly in 2026 on Asian buying, but would still be short of past peaks.
MARKET SUMMARY
With the sharpest gains in average soyabean export prices, the IGC GOI rose by 4% in the five weeks since the January GMR.
The IGC GOI wheat sub-Index gained by 2%, underpinned mainly by winterkill risks and weather-related logistical constraints in several northern hemisphere exporters.
Tied to overall solid international demand and occasionally difficult logistics in the US and Ukraine, the IGC GOI maize sub-Index firmed by 1% m/m.
The IGC GOI rice-sub-Index dipped slightly in overall subdued activity, partly linked to seasonal holidays in several key Asian markets.
Buoyed primarily by solid gains in the US and Argentina, contrasting with relatively modest upside in Brazil amid seasonal harvest pressure, the IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index rose by a net 8%.