The projections outlined in this report represent a possible supply and demand scenario for the major grains (wheat and maize (corn)), rice and soyabeans for the five years to 2021/22, taking into account a number of broad assumptions. These include trends in population growth, agriculture and trade policies, as well as prospects for the global economy. The outlook also assumes growing conditions are conducive for yields to reach average levels and does not take account of any variability linked to particularly favourable or unfavourable weather in an individual season. Under these assumptions, further net gains in global output are projected, although growth rates may not be as strong as in recent seasons and may not keep pace with rising consumption. This will lead to some depletion of world stocks, but this is from historically high levels at the start of the period and, despite the drawdown, ratios of stocks/use are seen remaining generally comfortable.
Global trade in all four commodities is forecast to reach new all-time peaks during the next five years, mainly driven by expanding needs in Asia and Africa.